26 - 01 - 2020 / Update
POLLING ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST POLL IN 2020
In the first poll conducted among Scots in 2020, a majority think that the ultimate decision over holding an independence referendum should be taken by the Scottish Parliament.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently turned down the First Minister’s request for power to hold an independence referendum to be transferred to the Scottish Parliament, but 54% think Holyrood should have decision making power, while 35% think it should be decided at Westminster and 12% have no opinion. Among those who express an opinion, the split is 61% in favour of Holyrood and 39% Westminster.
Unsurprisingly, 90% of those who voted for the SNP in the recent general election and 82% of those who voted ‘Yes’ in 2014 are in favour of power transferring to Holyrood.
However, it is noticeable that 40% of Labour voters from 2019 and 28% of ‘No’ voters from 2014 also support Holyrood having the power to decide on a referendum.
Similar results are apparent when voters are asked about the power to hold a referendum in the scenario that the Scottish Parliament returns a pro-independence majority after next year’s Holyrood election.
In this situation, 50% think the Scottish should have the power to decide when an independence referendum is held, while 36% do not think so and 14% have no opinion.
Among those with an opinion, this amounts to a 58%-42% majority in favour of Holyrood having that power.
Again, ‘Yes’ voters and SNP supporters overwhelmingly back Holyrood having this power, though it is noticeable that 39% of Labour voters and 27% of ‘No’ voters back this proposition.