12 - 10 - 2020 / Polling
OVERWHELMING OPPOSITION TO UK BREAKING INTERNATIONAL LAW
Devastating findings on UK Government’s Internal Market Bill and the impact of Brexit on Scottish public opinion are the latest to be released from a super-seized poll conducted by Survation for Progress Scotland.
The opinion poll found that 78% of respondents with an opinion believe that the UK government breaking international law is unacceptable while only 22% thought it was acceptable if it led to a better trade deal with the EU.
68% of respondents with an opinion believe that the UK government will not transfer relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish parliament and will damage the devolution arrangement, while 32% think that the UK government will transfer all relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish parliament and protect the devolution agreement Internal Market Bill.
59% of respondents with an opinion believe the Internal Market Bill will lead to a ‘power grab’ of responsibilities held by the Scottish Parliament. While 41% think the Bill will lead to ‘scores of new powers’ coming to the Scottish Parliament. The question elicited a high number of don’t know responses, at 43%.
The impact of the Internal Market Bill on independence voting intentions sees 32% more likely to vote YES 15% more likely to vote NO and 53% say it will make no difference to them.
On the European Union and Brexit, a wide number of questions were asked. Excluding respondents who don’t know or neither agree nor disagree the results were as follows:
UK government is doing a good job of preparing the country for the future, out of the EU:
- Agree 24% Disagree 76%
I am confident that a good trade deal will be negotiated between the UK and the EU by the end of 2020:
- Agree 28% Disagree 72%
Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely:
- Agree 73% Disagree 27%
If the UK leaves the European Union without a Deal, I would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum:
- Agree 61% Disagree 39%
An independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union:
- Agree 67% Disagree 33%
Leaving the EU will be good for the Scottish economy in the long run
- Agree 40% Disagree 60%
I am waiting to see what impact Brexit has on me before deciding how I would vote in another independence referendum
- Agree 30% Disagree 70%
Results already released from the poll show that 64% of respondents with a view believe Scotland would vote YES if a referendum were held now. The result is the highest-ever rating for the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ question, which tests the expectations of the public about a likely YES result.
In significant findings on changing voter attitudes, the Survation poll of 2,093 respondents found that almost one third of 2014 NO voters would now vote YES or are unsure about how they would vote. Nearly twice as many NO voters have moved to YES than have in the opposite direction.
Progress Scotland managing director Angus Robertson said:
“This poll finds there is overwhelming opposition to the UK government breaking international law and that the Internal Market Bill also will not transfer relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish Parliament.
“Brexit continues to have a significant impact on public opinion with nearly three quarters of people believing the UK government is not doing a good job preparing the country for the future, out of the EU. Meanwhile 67% of respondents believe an independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union.
“These findings reflect how much opinion is changing in Scotland and impacting on views towards Scottish independence. The poll has already established that the highest-ever percentage of voters in Scotland now believe that there would be a YES victory if a referendum were held tomorrow and that one third of 2014 NO voters have changed their minds to YES or are not sure how they would vote.
Progress Scotland independent polling adviser Mark Diffley said:
“As we approach the end of the transition for the UK leaving the EU single market at the end of December, the data from the poll on attitudes to Brexit and the UK Internal Market Bill are revealing. What is clear from this poll is that few voters feel confident of a good trade deal being negotiated by the EU and the UK by the end of the year or think that the UK government is doing a good job of preparing for the future outside the EU.
“Related to that, although a significant proportion of voters are unsure of the details and claims surrounding the UK Internal Market Bill, those with an opinion tend to be sceptical that it will led to powers being transferred to the Scottish Parliament and the vast majority of Scots believe it is unacceptable for the UK to break international law, even if it thinks it will lead to a better trade deal with the EU.”
Pollster analysis by Mark Diffley:
The questions in the poll on the impact of Brexit and the UK Internal Market Bill (IMB) produce some revealing data, including:
- Two-thirds of voters (66%) believe it is unacceptable for the UK government to break international law, while 19% think it is acceptable and 16% say they don’t know. That means that, among those with a view, 78% think it is unacceptable; this includes strong majorities across all demographic groups, al regions of Scotland and among those who voted Yes and No in 2014,
- Voters are more likely to believe the Scottish government claim that the IMB is a ‘power grab’ (33%) than the UK government claim that it will lead to ‘scores of new powers’ to Holyrood (23%). However, a plurality of voters (43%) do not know which claim is true; those who voted No in 2014 are more likely to be unsure of the claims (47%) with 28% supporting the UK government claim and 25% supporting the Scottish government claim,
- Around one in five voters think that the UK government is doing a good job of preparing the country for the future outside the EU 61% disagree. Interestingly, levels of agreement are low even among those who voted to leave the EU (36%), while 39% disagree,
- And 1 in 5 (21%) are confident that a good trade deal will be negotiated between the EU and the UK by the end of this year when the transition period ends, while 53% are not confident; on this measure those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 do feel more confident than those who do not (39% versus 29%) but are much more split on this measure than those who voted to remain in the EU.
Further opinion poll findings from the survey will be released, after which the full data tables will be published.