HIGHEST EVER POLL TOTAL PREDICTING SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE

11 - 10 - 2020 / Polling

HIGHEST EVER POLL TOTAL PREDICTING SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE

A new super-sized opinion poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Progress Scotland has found that 64% of respondents with a view believe Scotland would vote YES if a referendum were held now.

In significant findings on changing voter attitudes, the Survation poll of 2,093 respondents found that almost one third of 2014 NO voters would now vote YES or are unsure about how they would vote. Nearly twice as many NO voters have moved to YES than have in the opposite direction.

The results published by research organisation Progress Scotland showed an underlying movement in attitudes from NO towards YES on a ten-point scale compared to previous comparative polling.

A clear majority of respondents who hold an opinion are in favour of a second independence taking place if a pro-independence majority of MSPs are elected to the Scottish Parliament next year. 56% said such a vote should go ahead while 44% were opposed.

Top issues for deciding how to vote in the referendum were: the NHS, the future of the economy, and Brexit/EU membership. The top ten also included the Scottish government handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the performance of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Progress Scotland managing director Angus Robertson said:

“This poll shows how much opinion is changing in Scotland towards Scottish independence. After a series of sustained opinion poll findings indicating majority support for independence, this large poll demonstrates the scale of the momentum and the factors which are driving people from NO to YES”.

“It is extremely striking that the highest-ever percentage of voters in Scotland now believe that there would be a YES victory if a referendum were held tomorrow and that one third of 2014 NO voters have changed their minds to YES or are not sure how they would vote.

“This poll was conducted by Survation with questions set by independent polling adviser Mark Diffley and there are a broad range of further findings which we will publish in the days ahead.

"Many thanks to Progress Scotland subscribers who make it possible to commission these valuable polls and other research on undecided and open-minded voters”.

Progress Scotland independent polling adviser Mark Diffley said:

“The findings from the poll provide further evidence that the mood of voters on the constitutional question has changed during 2020.

"There is a consistent picture painted across a number of questions in the survey which enable that conclusion to be reached.

“Firstly, while the proportion of those who are undecided is in line with previous polls, the balance between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’, measured either by those who express a strong preference or a broad preference, is moving in the direction of ‘Yes’.

"That is backed by examining analysis of those who have changed their minds or have become undecided since 2014; this shows that around a quarter of all voters have either changed their minds or become unsure but, crucially, that 2014 ‘No’ voters are around twice as likely to be in those groups than 2014 ‘Yes’ voters.

Poll Analysis by Mark Diffley:

The data contains a range of important and interesting findings which offer insight into the mood of voters on the constitutional issue:

  • If we remove those who ‘Don’t know’ or are completely undecided, point 5 on our 0-10 scale, then 53% express pro-independence attitudes (6-10) while 47% express anti-independence attitudes,
  • Looking at wider undecided voters, 23% rate themselves as between 3 and 7 on our scale, in line with the 24% in the same group in October 2019,
  • While 64% of those who expressed a view think that ‘Yes’ would win a referendum if held now, this includes 45% of those who voted ‘No’ in 2014,
  • 26% of those who voted in 2014 have either changed their minds on the question (11%) or are now unsure (15%); those who voted ‘No’ are in 2014 are far more likely to be in both of those groups – 13% of 2014 ‘No’ voters have changed their minds compared to 8% of 2014 ‘Yes’ voters; further, 19% of 2014 ‘No’ voters are now unsure compared to 9% of 2014 ‘Yes’ voters,
  • Among those who expressed a preference, 56% that there should be an independence referendum if the 2021 Holyrood election results in the new parliament having a pro-independence majority; this includes 26% of those who voted ‘No’ in 2014.

Further opinion poll findings from the survey will be released in the next days, after which the full data-tables will be published.

TOPLINE WEIGHTED TABLES:
Independence Vote Expectations
Regardless of your own views on Scottish independence, if a referendum were held now, what do you think the outcome of the referendum would be?
Base: All (2,093) %
Scotland would vote ‘Yes’ to independence 55%
Scotland would vote ‘No’ to independence 30%
Don’t know 14%
Excluding Don’t Knows: Scotland would vote Yes: 64% No: 36%
Same Views/Changing Views on independence
Thinking back to how you voted in the referendum September 2014 and your views now, which of the following statements best describes what you think?
Base: All (2,093) %
My views are the same as in 2014 and I would vote the same way in another referendum 73%
My views have changed, and I would vote the other way in another referendum 11%
My views have changed a bit, and I am now not sure how I would vote 15%
I would not vote in another referendum 1%
According to the data-tables 32% of 2014 NO voters have changed their views and they would vote the other way, or their views have changed a bit and are now not sure how they would vote. This is the same for 17% of 2014 YES voters.
10 Point Scale
On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country’ what number would you consider yourself to be?
Base: All (2,093) %
0 – I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country 28%
1 - 4%
2 - 5%
3 - 3%
4 - 3%
5 - 7%
6 - 4%
7 - 6%
8 - 7%
9 - 4%
10 – I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country 28%
Holyrood majority for referendum and indyref2
As you may know, the next election to the Scottish parliament takes place in May. If that election results in a majority of MSPs who are in favour of holding another referendum on Scottish independence, would you support another referendum taking place or not?
Base: All (2,093) %
Yes 49%
No 38%
Don’t know 13%

Excluding Don’t Knows: Indyref2 go-ahead Yes: 56% No: 44%
Further opinion poll findings from the survey will be released in the next days, after which the full data-tables will be published.
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