63% MAJORITY BELIEVE SCOTLAND WILL BECOME INDEPENDENT

30 - 03 - 2019 / Polling

63% MAJORITY BELIEVE SCOTLAND WILL BECOME INDEPENDENT

New polling and research organisation Progress Scotland has published further tranche of findings from its inaugural large-scale opinion poll showing that a large majority believe that Scotland will become independent.

POLL FOR PROGRESS SCOTLAND FOLLOWS RESULTS SHOWING STRONG BREXIT IMPACT

Among those with an opinion on the issue: 63% think Scotland will become an independent country while 37% do not think it will happen.

More than 2,000 people took part in the poll conducted for Progress Scotland by Survation between 15th and 21st of March 2019, and is particularly focussed on the views on people who are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence.

The headline figures among all respondent are:

Scotland will become an independent country
63% Agree / 37% Disagree.

There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two years
Likely: 48% / Unlikely: 44%

There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years
Likely: 59% / Unlikely: 32%

There should be another referendum on Scottish independence
61% Agree / 39% Disagree

The headline figures among respondents who are open-minded or undecided on independence are:

If Scotland voted for independence, which of the following currency options would you prefer?

    • Keeping the pound in the long term: 47%
    • Keeping the pound in the short term and switching to a new Scottish currency in the longer term, when economic tests have been met: 23%
    • Joining the EU single currency, the Euro: 14%;
    • Switching to a Scottish currency in the short term: 6%

    Control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish parliament/government, regardless of which political party is in power
    Agree: 74% / Disagree: 6%

    Independence would be good for the Scottish economy in the long run
    Agree: 40% / Disagree: 17%

    Decisions over defence and foreign affairs affecting Scotland should continue to be made by the UK parliament/government
    Agree: 35% / Disagree: 39%

    Decisions over Scotland’s relationship with the European Union should be made by the Scottish parliament/government
    Agree: 75% / Disagree: 9%

    Independence would be more damaging to the Scottish economy than Brexit
    Agree: 22% / Disagree: 35%

    I would vote for independence if I was convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy
    Agree: 77% / Disagree: 5%


    Progress Scotland has already released poll information, including findings amongst all respondents that:

    • ‘Brexit/EU membership’ is now the most important issue determining views on independence vote, up from 22% in 2014 to 43% today.
    • One fifth of respondents (21%) who voted in the 2014 Scottish referendum have changed how they would vote on Scottish independence or their views have changed a bit and they are not sure about how they they would vote on Scottish independence.

    Independent polling expert Mark Diffley, who designed the questions for the Progress Scotland poll said:

    “Progress Scotland’s inaugural poll of more than 2,000 adults across the country reveals that the majority think that Scotland will become an independent country with only a third thinking that it will never happen. Among only those with an opinion on the issue, 63% think Scotland will become an independent country while 37% do not think it will happen.

    “While the evidence on attitudes to independence continues to show a country divided broadly along the lines of the 2014 vote, there is also an expectation among many, including some who voted against independence, that it is likely to happen. The extent to which that view is driven by the current wider political climate and its potential impacts, is something worth investigating further.

    Progress Scotland Managing Director Angus Robertson said:

    “These polling results show the value of this research, showing that a majority of all respondents expressing an opinion believe that Scottish independence will happen and that an independence referendum will and should happen.

    “Our particular focus is on people who are open-minded or undecided on independence, and our research indicates this is a fifth of the electorate. We have asked a series of interesting questions of this group covering the economy, governance, defence and security and Europe.

    “This is just the beginning of research by Progress Scotland and we are very grateful of the support of thousands of subscribers who help fund our work"

    If you would like to support Progress Scotland please click here





    Technical note
    Total sample size: 2041
    Methodology: People aged 16+ living in Scotland interviewed online.
    Survey designed by Mark Diffley and data collected using the Survation panel in Scotland
    Fieldwork dates: 15th - 21st March 2019
    Weighting: Data are weighted to the profile of all people on Scotland 16+ - age, sex, region, 2017 general election vote, 2016 EU referendum vote and 2014 independence referendum
    Q. If Scotland voted for independence, which of the following currency options would you prefer?
    Base: Those undecided on independence (351)
    Keeping the pound in the long term: 47%
    Keeping the pound in the short term and switching to a new Scottish currency in the longer term, when economic tests have been met: 23%
    Joining the EU single currency, the Euro: 14%
    Switching to a Scottish currency in the short term: 6%
    Another option: 0%
    Don’t know: 11%
    Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
    Base: Those undecided on independence (351)

    Control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish parliament/government, regardless of which political party is in power
    Agree: 74% / Disagree: 6% / Neither: 17% / Don’t know: 3%

    Independence would be good for the Scottish economy in the long run
    Agree: 40% / Disagree: 17% / Neither: 30% / Don’t know: 12%

    Decisions over defence and foreign affairs affecting Scotland should continue to be made by the UK parliament/government
    Agree: 35% / Disagree: 39% / Neither: 19% / Don’t know: 7%

    Decisions over Scotland’s relationship with the European Union should be made by the Scottish parliament/government
    Agree: 75% / Disagree: 9% / Neither: 12% / Don’t know: 4%

    Independence would be more damaging to the Scottish economy than Brexit
    Agree: 22% / Disagree: 35% / Neither: 28% / Don’t know: 14%

    I would vote for independence if I was convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy
    Agree: 77% / Disagree: 5% / Neither: 17% / Don’t know: 2%

    Q Thinking about the future, how likely or unlikely do you think the following events are to occur?
    Base: All respondents (2014)

    There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two years
    Likely: 48% / Unlikely: 44% / Don’t know: 8%

    There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years
    Likely: 59% / Unlikely: 32% / Don’t know: 9%
    There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next ten years
    Likely: 65% / Unlikely: 24% / Don’t know: 12%

    There will be another referendum on independence, but not within the next ten years
    Likely: 37% / Unlikely: 44% / Don’t know: 19%

    Q. Regardless of your view on the issue, which of the following statements best reflects what you think will happen?
    Base: All respondents (2014)

    Scotland will be an independent country within the next two years: 8%
    Scotland will be an independent country within the next five years: 19%
    Scotland will be an independent country within the next ten years: 16%
    Scotland will become an independent country, but not within the next ten years: 13%
    Scotland will not become an independent country: 33%
    Don’t know: 11%
    Q. Which of the following statements best reflects your view?
    Base: All respondents (2014)
    There should be another referendum on Scottish independence within the next two years: 24%
    There should be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two to five years: 16%
    There should be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five to ten years: 9%
    There should be another referendum on Scottish independence, but not for at least ten years: 9%
    There should not be another referendum on Scottish independence: 37% Don’t know: 6%

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