30 - 03 - 2019 / Polling
63% MAJORITY BELIEVE SCOTLAND WILL BECOME INDEPENDENT
New polling and research organisation Progress Scotland has published further tranche of findings from its inaugural large-scale opinion poll showing that a large majority believe that Scotland will become independent.
POLL FOR PROGRESS SCOTLAND FOLLOWS RESULTS SHOWING STRONG BREXIT IMPACT
Among those with an opinion on the issue: 63% think Scotland will become an independent country while 37% do not think it will happen.
More than 2,000 people took part in the poll conducted for Progress Scotland by Survation between 15th and 21st of March 2019, and is particularly focussed on the views on people who are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence.
The headline figures among all respondent are:
Scotland will become an independent country
63% Agree / 37% Disagree.
There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two years
Likely: 48% / Unlikely: 44%
There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years
Likely: 59% / Unlikely: 32%
There should be another referendum on Scottish independence
61% Agree / 39% Disagree
The headline figures among respondents who are open-minded or undecided on independence are:
If Scotland voted for independence, which of the following currency options would you prefer?
- Keeping the pound in the long term: 47%
- Keeping the pound in the short term and switching to a new Scottish currency in the longer term, when economic tests have been met: 23%
- Joining the EU single currency, the Euro: 14%;
- Switching to a Scottish currency in the short term: 6%
Control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish parliament/government, regardless of which political party is in power
Agree: 74% / Disagree: 6%
Independence would be good for the Scottish economy in the long run
Agree: 40% / Disagree: 17%
Decisions over defence and foreign affairs affecting Scotland should continue to be made by the UK parliament/government
Agree: 35% / Disagree: 39%
Decisions over Scotland’s relationship with the European Union should be made by the Scottish parliament/government
Agree: 75% / Disagree: 9%
Independence would be more damaging to the Scottish economy than Brexit
Agree: 22% / Disagree: 35%
I would vote for independence if I was convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy
Agree: 77% / Disagree: 5%
Progress Scotland has already released poll information, including findings amongst all respondents that:
- ‘Brexit/EU membership’ is now the most important issue determining views on independence vote, up from 22% in 2014 to 43% today.
- One fifth of respondents (21%) who voted in the 2014 Scottish referendum have changed how they would vote on Scottish independence or their views have changed a bit and they are not sure about how they they would vote on Scottish independence.
Independent polling expert Mark Diffley, who designed the questions for the Progress Scotland poll said:
“Progress Scotland’s inaugural poll of more than 2,000 adults across the country reveals that the majority think that Scotland will become an independent country with only a third thinking that it will never happen. Among only those with an opinion on the issue, 63% think Scotland will become an independent country while 37% do not think it will happen.
“While the evidence on attitudes to independence continues to show a country divided broadly along the lines of the 2014 vote, there is also an expectation among many, including some who voted against independence, that it is likely to happen. The extent to which that view is driven by the current wider political climate and its potential impacts, is something worth investigating further.
Progress Scotland Managing Director Angus Robertson said:
“These polling results show the value of this research, showing that a majority of all respondents expressing an opinion believe that Scottish independence will happen and that an independence referendum will and should happen.
“Our particular focus is on people who are open-minded or undecided on independence, and our research indicates this is a fifth of the electorate. We have asked a series of interesting questions of this group covering the economy, governance, defence and security and Europe.
“This is just the beginning of research by Progress Scotland and we are very grateful of the support of thousands of subscribers who help fund our work"
If you would like to support Progress Scotland please click here